Models
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 12 brokers · 360 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-23.
Broker models frame Gartner as a subscription-research franchise coming off a growth trough. Total revenue is roughly flat in FY-2026 before reaccelerating, but the leading indicator — contract value — is already inflecting up, driven by a swing back to positive net new business in the larger GTS book. The debate is not whether the book has turned but how fast, and the cash it throws off keeps compounding on a per-share basis.
Contract value, the leading indicator, is reaccelerating: +1.2% to +6.3% growth
GTS carries most of the book; GBS is smaller but modeled to grow faster. The net-add lines are the sharper story: GTS net contract value increase swings from negative in FY-2025 to a large positive by FY-2028.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total contract value | $5.21bn | $5.51bn | $5.81bn | $6.18bn | +5.8% | 10 |
| Contract value - GTS | $3.94bn | $4.17bn | $4.37bn | $4.63bn | +5.9% | 10 |
| Contract value - GBS | $1.27bn | $1.34bn | $1.43bn | $1.55bn | +5.4% | 10 |
| Total contract value - YoY growth(%) | 1.2% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | +2.5pt | 10 |
| Net adds | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| LTM Net contract value change(NCVI) | $58.90m | $183.16m | $305.20m | $369.78m | +211.0% | 10 |
| LTM Net contract value increase(NCVI) - GTS | $-14.52m | $112.14m | $195.04m | $246.75m | +872.5% | 10 |
| LTM Net contract value increase(NCVI) - GBS | $56.97m | $64.92m | $97.46m | $111.68m | +14.0% | 11 |
Insights compounds and Conferences rebuilds; Consulting is the drag on flat FY-2026 revenue
Insights (research) is the compounder and the bulk of revenue. Consulting is modeled down about 11% in FY-2026 and never fully recovers; Conferences keeps rebuilding.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | $6.49bn | $6.43bn | $6.72bn | $7.11bn | -1.0% | 12 |
| Total revenue - Insights | $5.07bn | $5.20bn | $5.45bn | $5.77bn | +2.6% | 11 |
| Total revenue - Conferences | $632.10m | $697.22m | $744.44m | $800.27m | +10.3% | 11 |
| Total revenue - Consulting | $576.27m | $511.23m | $529.73m | $548.96m | -11.3% | 11 |
Brokers agree the GTS book has turned up; they split on how fast
The dispersion sits on the exact line that drives the reacceleration thesis, not on the headline P&L.
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LTM Net contract value increase(NCVI) - GTS | FY-2027E | $207.97m | $170.67m–$245.29m | $102.52m–$268.62m | 9 |
| LTM Net contract value increase(NCVI) - GTS | FY-2028E | $262.67m | $225.18m–$284.06m | $115.98m–$330.09m | 7 |
| LTM Net contract value change(NCVI) | FY-2027E | $313.04m | $280.20m–$344.15m | $180.04m–$400.14m | 8 |
Free cash flow per share climbs from $15.3 to $22.7 across the forecast
Operating EBITDA is near-flat in FY-2026 then grows; the per-share cash line rises faster than the dollar total as the share count shrinks.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | $1.16bn | $1.16bn | $1.23bn | $1.34bn | +0.0% | 12 |
| Free cash flow per share($) | $15.30 | $17.22 | $19.63 | $22.65 | +12.5% | 11 |
| EBITDA - Operating | $1.59bn | $1.58bn | $1.65bn | $1.77bn | -0.8% | 12 |
Operating KPIs rest on thin broker coverage; one derived line is unusable
Retention rates, contract value per enterprise and client-enterprise counts are modeled by only one to three brokers, so read them as one analyst's view rather than consensus. The "conferences revenue per attendee" line is on a broken scale and should be ignored. Headline revenue, CV and cash lines carry far deeper coverage (up to 12 brokers) with revisions dated mid-2026.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.