Models
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 12 brokers · 360 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-23.
Broker models frame Gartner as a research-subscription franchise whose growth engine — contract value — is bending back up: median total contract value growth reaccelerates from about 1% in FY-2025 toward 6% by FY-2028, led by a sharp recovery in net new business. The subscription Insights segment ($5bn+) does the compounding, Conferences rebound, and Consulting lags. Where the disagreement lives is not the headline P&L but the pace of the net-contract-value recovery, especially in the larger GTS sales force.
Key drivers
Contract value is booked ahead of revenue, so brokers treat the NCVI reacceleration as the tell for the subscription line. GTS (the larger book) is where the swing is steepest — from a near-stalled FY-2025 back to triple-digit net adds.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total contract value | $5.21bn | $5.51bn | $5.81bn | $6.18bn | +5.8% | 10 |
| Contract value - GTS | $3.94bn | $4.17bn | $4.37bn | $4.63bn | +5.9% | 10 |
| Contract value - GBS | $1.27bn | $1.34bn | $1.43bn | $1.55bn | +5.4% | 10 |
| Net new (NCVI) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| LTM Net contract value change(NCVI) | $58.90m | $183.16m | $305.20m | $369.78m | +211.0% | 10 |
| LTM Net contract value increase(NCVI) - GTS | $-14.52m | $112.14m | $195.04m | $246.75m | +872.5% | 10 |
| LTM Net contract value increase(NCVI) - GBS | $56.97m | $64.92m | $97.46m | $111.68m | +14.0% | 11 |
Subscription Insights does the compounding; Conferences rebound; Consulting is the laggard
The $5bn+ Insights research line carries growth every year. Conferences step up (+10% in FY-2026), while Consulting is modeled down double digits in FY-2026 before a muted recovery — the one segment brokers do not credit with growth.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Segments | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total revenue - Insights | $5.07bn | $5.20bn | $5.45bn | $5.77bn | +2.6% | 11 |
| Total revenue - Conferences | $632.10m | $697.22m | $744.44m | $800.27m | +10.3% | 11 |
| Total revenue - Consulting | $576.27m | $511.23m | $529.73m | $548.96m | -11.3% | 11 |
| Total | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total revenue | $6.49bn | $6.43bn | $6.72bn | $7.11bn | -1.0% | 12 |
Brokers split hardest on GTS net new business — the crux of the reacceleration call
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LTM Net contract value increase(NCVI) - GTS | FY-2027E | $207.97m | $170.67m–$245.29m | $102.52m–$268.62m | 9 |
| LTM Net contract value increase(NCVI) - GBS | FY-2027E | $99.62m | $87.28m–$107.22m | $64.64m–$131.52m | 10 |
| LTM Net contract value change(NCVI) | FY-2027E | $313.04m | $280.20m–$344.15m | $180.04m–$400.14m | 8 |
| Free cash flow per share($) | FY-2028E | $22.93 | $20.36–$24.91 | $18.94–$26.88 | 9 |
Cash compounds faster than the P&L: FCF per share ~$15 to ~$23 while operating EBITDA sits near $1.6bn
Operating EBITDA is modeled broadly flat around $1.6bn near term before rising, so the compounding investors see comes through free cash flow per share, helped by buyback-driven share reduction.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margin | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EBITDA - Operating | $1.59bn | $1.58bn | $1.65bn | $1.77bn | -0.8% | 12 |
| Cash | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow | $1.16bn | $1.16bn | $1.23bn | $1.34bn | +0.0% | 12 |
| Free cash flow per share($) | $15.30 | $17.22 | $19.63 | $22.65 | +12.5% | 11 |
The KPI detail thins fast: retention is one-broker, and forward-year coverage drops off
Client-retention lines for GTS and GBS carry a single broker, and wallet-retention and productivity metrics only two to three; treat these as one analyst's view, not the street. Even the well-covered CV and NCVI lines lose brokers by FY-2028 (down to six or seven), so the outer year is thinner than the near years.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.