Estimates
Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-07-29.
Gartner's consensus tape is a margin-and-capital-return story rather than a growth one: revenue is essentially flat — 2026 estimates sit below 2025's $6.5bn actual — yet normalized EPS is modeled to compound into the high-teens by 2028. The company has beaten normalized EPS eight quarters running while landing revenue within roughly 1.5% of consensus, and forward EPS estimates have drifted up over six months even as revenue estimates were cut. The street stays cautious, with most analysts at hold.
Forward estimates
EBITDA tracks the topline at roughly 10% two-year growth, so the far larger EPS climb points to share-count reduction and below-the-line leverage rather than margin expansion. Consensus models no dividend across the horizon.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · YoY uses the prior fiscal year from the feed; analyst count and range use the first displayed period.
| Metric | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | YoY | Analysts | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.43bn | $6.71bn | $7.06bn | -1.1% | 14 | $6.38bn / $6.47bn |
| EBITDA | $1.57bn | $1.64bn | $1.74bn | -2.3% | 12 | $1.54bn / $1.62bn |
| EPS (normalized) | $13.68 | $15.31 | $17.48 | +3.9% | 15 | $13.07 / $14.20 |
FY27 revenue estimates cut ~6% over six months while FY27 EPS drifted up ~4%
Over 180 days FY27 revenue fell from about $7,143M to $6,706M while FY27 normalized EPS rose from $14.76 to $15.31. FY28 was trimmed on both lines, revenue harder than EPS.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Point-in-time consensus; Δ90d is Now versus 90d.
| Metric | FY | 180d | 90d | 30d | Now | Δ90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027 | $14.76 | $14.72 | $15.31 | $15.31 | +4.0% |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028 | $18.72 | $16.75 | $17.60 | $17.48 | +4.4% |
| Revenue | FY2027 | $7.14bn | $6.82bn | $6.71bn | $6.71bn | -1.7% |
| Revenue | FY2028 | $7.94bn | $7.23bn | $7.07bn | $7.06bn | -2.3% |
Eight straight normalized-EPS beats while revenue prints within ~1.5% of consensus
Current sequences by metric: Revenue: 1 consecutive miss; EPS (normalized): 8 consecutive beats.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Consensus is captured before each actual first became effective.
| Quarter | Metric | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 | Revenue | $1.52bn | $1.51bn | -0.3% | Miss |
| Q1 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $2.92 | $3.32 | +13.6% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2025 | Revenue | $1.75bn | $1.75bn | +0.2% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $3.51 | $3.94 | +12.2% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2025 | Revenue | $1.52bn | $1.52bn | +0.2% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $2.43 | $2.76 | +13.7% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | Revenue | $1.67bn | $1.69bn | +0.7% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $3.31 | $3.53 | +6.8% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2025 | Revenue | $1.53bn | $1.53bn | -0.0% | Miss |
| Q1 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $2.72 | $2.98 | +9.7% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2024 | Revenue | $1.69bn | $1.72bn | +1.5% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $3.26 | $5.45 | +67.2% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2024 | Revenue | $1.48bn | $1.48bn | +0.6% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $2.37 | $2.50 | +5.6% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2024 | Revenue | $1.58bn | $1.60bn | +0.7% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $3.03 | $3.22 | +6.4% | Beat |
Street snapshot
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Analyst counts shown explicitly.
| Street view | Reading | Analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Recommendation mix | Buy 3, Outperform 0, Hold 10, Underperform 1, Sell 1 | 15 |
| Consensus score | 2.80 | 15 |
| Target price | mean $160.4; median $162.0; high $203.0; low $120.0 | 13 |
Where the street disagrees
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Spread/mean is absolute high-low divided by absolute mean.
| Metric | Period | Mean | Low–high | Spread/mean | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028E | $17.48 | $15.68–$21.43 | 32.9% | 10 |
| EBITDA | FY2028E | $1.74bn | $1.55bn–$1.84bn | 16.8% | 10 |
Coverage thins sharply beyond 2028
Every FY2029 line rests on just two analysts, and FY2028 GAAP net income on six. Treat the 2028-2029 tails as directional rather than firm consensus.